金融衍生工具黄金期货报告.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 14 The report of derivative Brief contents: 1. Fundamental analysis 1.1 Economic analysis 1.2 Derivatives analysis 1.3 futures analysis 2. Gold futures pricing factors 3. Our contract selecting and trading strategies 3.1 Introduction to Gold Futures 3.2 Margin of Gold Futures 3.3 Gold Futures On-Exchange 3.4 Summary 3.5 Experience 4. References Fundamental analysis 1.1 Economic analysis 2011 macroeconomic policy tone: a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. Expected annual economic growth is 9.5%, and annual inflation rate is around 5%. As of late 2010, Chinas local government debt balance of 10.7 trillion yuan, with the central government debt amounted to 6.75 trillion yuan, a total of 17.5 trillion yuan, accounting for the total GDP (39.7 trillion yuan) in 44%, lower than the Mayo cap. Relative to the major developed countries, Chinas current debt rate is still at a low level. Recently, the United States has reached the statutory debt limit $ 14.29 trillion, accounting for 100% of GDP in 2010. The Japanese debt ratio since 1997 has exceeded 100%, and is currently close to 200%. Better debt situation in the EU, Germany and France in 2009, the debt rate was 55.9% and 68.4%. These countries are higher than Chinas current debt rate. Second, the central place increases total public debt compared with total government revenue is still low. 2010, total government revenue as high as 8.3 trillion yuan. 17.5 trillion yuan of the total debt equal to total government revenue in 2010 to 2-fold, which is much lower than 6.5 times the United States. And China is to maintain a high revenue growth rate, the first half of 2011, Chinas fiscal revenue grew 30% in 2011 is expected to reach 10 trillion yuan. China faces the problem: the debt crisis in Europe and America, slowdown in external demand, economic growth has decreased the risk; commodity prices, wage costs, negative real interest rates, aggregate dem