无偏灰色预测模型-吉培荣.pdf

系统工程与电子技术 　 　 第 22 卷 第 6 期 Systems Engineering and Electronics Vol22 ,No6 2000 ( ) 　文章编号 :1001506X 2000 　 　 无偏灰色预测模型 吉培荣 　黄巍松 　胡翔勇 武汉水利电力大学电气系 ,宜昌 443002 摘 　要 　研究了传统灰色预测模型的特性 ,证明了传统灰色预测模型是有偏差的指数模型 ,并在此基础上提 出了无偏灰色预测模型 。无偏灰色预测模型消除了传统灰色预测模型本身所固有的偏差 ,实质上是一种无偏的指 数模型 。无偏灰色预测模型不仅性能优于传统灰色预测模型 ,而且其适用范围也较传统灰色预测模型有了很大扩 展 。给出的两个实例充分显示了无偏灰色预测模型的优越性 。 主题词 　预测 　　指数 　　模型 中图分类号 :N9415 An Unbiased Grey Forecasting Model Ji Peirong 　　Huang Weisong 　　Hu Xiangyong Dept . of Electrical Eng . , University of Hy draulic and Electric Engineering , Yichang 443002 Abstract 　In this paper , the characteristics of the conventional grey - forecasting model are discussed , the fact that the conven tional grey - forecasting model is a biased exponential model is testified. Based on the proof , an unbiased grey - forecasting model is proposed. The unbiased grey - forecasting model eliminates the inherent deviation of the conventional grey - forecasting model , it is in fact an unbiased exponential model . Compared with the conventional grey - forecasting , the unbiased grey - forecasting model is superior in properties and has more extensive application scope . Two examples clearly demonstrate the superiorit