贵州农村居民消费研究-人口学专业论文.docxVIP

贵州农村居民消费研究摘 贵州农村居民消费研究 摘 要 人楚作为生产者鞠漓费者豹统一体活跃在整个经济活动中，联羝两者的纽带是消费。 长期以采．消费理论研究_：燕要在两个方丽进行：一是在市场经济条件下，“边际消费倾向” 的大小是决定一个国家或地区投资撬楱的霪要因素，势遴嚣影响经济发展，医此，针对“边 际消费籁向”的研究是消费—投资领域的一个重要方蕊{二是稿费理论也探讨决定～个国 家或地麟的边际消费倾向太小的因素是什么，并进而对消费者行为进行研究。 1978琴鞋后。我圜斌民濮费研究爨濒趋成熟，对瀵赞的研究斡文献选来越多。德完整 建运用时涝分析对贵州农树居民消费研究的文献还是空白。本文试翻从消费水平翦变动过 程、边际消费倾向和影响消费的因素兰个层面上对贵州农村居民消费j差E行实证研究。 研究续果显秀{：1949霉至2003年，赞髑农村居民魏平均谤费颓翔是O．88；进入灏锈除 段的时闻是2002年。1985年后，农民消费水平不断地商商需求层次过渡；而1978年以后， 贵州农村居民的消费与收入开始逐步攀商，且收入与消费之差逐渐增大。而贵州农村居民 “边际溃爨缓自偏低”，这将援对放缓赛绷农村经漭熬发展。驮影嚷嶷媸农村居民搂蘩建 度看，冀影响因素主要镪括：贵娴农村爝民存在预防憔储蓄．且预防性储蓄主要受收入不 稳定性影响；贵州农村展民的暂时收入澍当期消费影响很明显，全省农村居民棘轮效应和 示范效应不显著，当期满赞受预齄逶受黪胀影响不明鼗。 荚键词：边际消费倾向；持久收入；示范效庶；棘转效应；收入不确定性 Study Study Oil the Rural Residents’Consumption in Guizhou Abstract People enliven in the whole economic activity as entities of producer and consttmer，the tie of which is the consumption．The consumption theory goes on in two major aspects：On one hand，it influences economic development through the effect of“marginal propensity to eonsunle”on investment,which thus makes the research on the‘marginal propensity to consume’all important re∞ect of the consumption field；On the other hand，consumption theory probes into the factors influencing the size of the‘marginal propensity to consume’’of one country or an area． After 1978。research on氇e residents’consumption in onr country has maturated gradually,and documents of these researches have become greater and greater in number,while the research，with full display of the time-sequence analysis。on the rural residents’consumption in Guizhou province．iS still of a blank docunmnt，This paper is intended to carry on an experimental research on the rural residen招’ consumption in Guizhou province in蛙技糖aspects：the change course ofconsumption level，the marginal propensity to cOnSBlTIC and factors affecting consumption． The result of study shOWS：From 1949 to 2003．rural residents’average propensity to consume in Guizhou WaS 0．88；it Was in 2002 tllat they carne to the stage of enough food and c