混沌时间序列预测模型分析-轮机工程专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract In this paper, on the basis of analyzing the research status at home and abroad, With the logistic equation, simulation pest population chaotic time series and chaotic time series prediction center focal point, complete the following research and related programming: Analyzed the agricultural neighborhood Logistic equation model and its chaotic time sequence generation parameters: initial value of 0.22(between 0 and 1), μ value of 4 (between 3 and 4), the length of the time series, such as N, is 400. In this study based on chaos theory, by definition explore the chaotic nature of chaotic time series Discriminant two angles: quantitative analysis and quantitative calculations. Which the law of quantitative analysis using the power spectrum method, sensitive dependence on initial conditions analysis; draw given time sequence power spectrum shows the time series of peaks together into one, to determine chaotic; quantitative calculation rule correlation dimension, largest Lyapunov exponent calculation(Wolf Law and a small amount of data method). The methods through MATLAB programmi -ng were calculated associated dimension, such as D2, it’s 1.1111 and non-integer; Wolf method to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent, such as λ1，it’s 0.76503 and greater than 0,with the help of λ1, judgment given parameter logistic time series with chaotic behavior, And the small amount of data to calculate the maximum Lyapunov exponent such as λ1，it’s 0.65948 and greater than 0, get a same conclusion. In comparison, the quantitative calculations obtained criterion of more convincing, and then reinforce the basis of the data source for the prediction of chaotic time series. Researched the selection of the phase space reconstruction parameters. Embedding dimension selection, auxiliary GP algorithm, a rough calculation embeddi -ng dimension, such as m, it’s 3; The delay time is selected, focus through C-C method. The method by calculating the time window to calculate the emb