Laws of Cyberspace课件.ppt

Gordon Bell’s Seven Price Tiers 10$: wrist watch computers 100$: pocket/ palm computers 1,000$: portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle) SuperServer: Costs more than 100,000 $ “Mainframe” Costs more than 1M$ Must be an array of processors, disks, tapes comm ports 精品文档 Bell’s Evolution of Computer Classes Technology enable two evolutionary paths: 1. constant performance, decreasing cost 2. constant price, increasing performance ?? Time Mainframes (central) Minis (dep’t.) PCs (personals) Log Price WSs 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62 精品文档 Region/ Intranet Campus Home… buildings Body World Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Cars…  phys. nets 精品文档 Many little beat few big Smoking, hairy golf ball How to connect the many little parts? How to program the many little parts? Fault tolerance? $1 million $100 K $10 K Mainframe Mini Micro Nano 14 9 5.25 3.5 2.5 1.8 1 M SPEC marks, 1TFLOP 106 clocks to bulk ram Event-horizon on chip VM reincarnated Multi-program cache, On-Chip SMP 10 microsecond ram 10 millisecond disc 10 second tape archive 10 nano-second ram Pico Processor 10 pico-second ram 1 MM 3 1 00 TB 1 TB 1 0 GB 1 MB 10 0 MB 精品文档 Gordon Bell’s Platform Economics Computer type $ units Mainframe WS Browser 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Mainframe WS Browser Price (K$) Volume (K) App price Traditional computers: Custom or Semi-Custom high-tech and high-touch New computers:  high-tech and no-touch 精品文档 Software Economics: Bill’s Law Bill Joy’s law (Sun): Don’t write software for less than 100,000 platforms.  @10M$ engineering expense,