上海期货交易所铜期货的价格影响因素分析.doc

温州大学商学院本科毕业论文 PAGE PAGE 14 本 科 毕 业 设 计（论文） ( 2010届) 题 目：上海期货交易所铜期货的价格影响因素分析 学 院: 专　　业: 班　　级: 姓 名: 学 号: 指导老师: 完成日期: 上海期货交易所铜期货的价格影响因素分析 摘要：目前，中国已成为全球最大的铜消费国，上海期货交易所也成为世界上第二大的铜期货交易市场。铜作为重要的工业原料，是国际大宗交易商品，对经济的发展具有至关重要的作用。铜期货与现货价格密切相关。近年来铜价的震荡给供给与消费带来重大影响。因此分析铜期货价格的主要影响因素，探索其价格波动规律，对规避价格风险、保障经济稳定具有重大意义。本文从供求关系、宏观经济形势与政策、汇率、伦敦铜期货与上海铜期货之间的关系等方面分析铜期货价格的价格形成机制。 关键词：铜期货；供求关系；TC/RC费用；比价；相关性分析； Abstract：At present, China has become the largest copper consumer, the Shanghai futures exchange has become the worlds second largest copper futures market. As the important industrial raw materials of copper, is the international commodity trading commodities for economic development, has the vital role. Copper futures and spot price are closely related. In recent years the price shocks to supply and consumer brings great influence. So the copper futures price analysis of the main factors influencing the price fluctuation, exploration, price risk aversion and ensure the economic stability is of great significance. From the relation between supply and demand, macro economic situation and policy, exchange, London copper futures and Shanghai copper futures analysis the relationship between the copper futures price forming mechanism. Key Words： Copper futures, Supply and demand relation, TC/RC expenses, price ratio, Correlation analysis, 目 录 一、 引言····························································································· 1 二、 2003-2009年铜期货行情····································································· 1 （一） 上涨阶段············································································ 1 （二） 震荡阶段············································································ 1 （三） 下跌阶段············································································ 1 （四） 反弹阶段···············