干线公路养护维修费用预测分析.pdfVIP

摘 要 我国干线公路建设日趋完善，现已基本形成四通八达的公路网，然而一些早期修建 的干线公路已逐渐进入养护期，为保障干线公路的服务能力，合理分配有限的养护资金， 因此干线公路费用预测意义重大。 本文简述了干线公路养护工作的主要内容及养护费用的组成体系，并对费用的影响 因素及资金来源进行了简要分析。路面性能评价是反映路况的重要信息，对路面性能评 价的指标及预测方法进行了详细叙述，提出了基于几何平均数的路面综合评价指标，结 合实例运用了基于数列灰的路面性能预测。 干线公路养护费用预测模型是本论文的核心内容，运用多元线性回归得出特征年养 护工程量结合当地的平均维修造价即可得出养护费用；建立平均维修费用和路面性能等 级之间的关系，据此可得最佳维修时机对应的路面性能等级和平均维修费用，结合维修 路段的总面积可得养护费用；提出了养护费用与交通量、路面状况指数之间的对数关系 式。结合实例对基于养护工程量预测模型进行了验证，基本符合实际情况。 概述了养护决策优化的意义，简要介绍了决策优化的方法，并对养护决策优化进行 简要分析，简要介绍常用的决策优化分析方法。 关键词：养护工作内容；费用组成；路面使用性能评价；费用预测模型；决策优化 方法 I Abstract The Chinese truck highway construction become perfect with each passing day，which ramified all over the country ．However ，some truck highway is gradually in to the maintenance period ．For the protection of highway service ability and the rational allocation of limited maintenance fund, the prediction of truck highway cost is significant. This paper describes the main content of truck highway maintenance work and the system of maintenance cost,and analyses the affect factors on the expenditure and the fund sources. Pavement performance evaluation is the important reflection of traffic information . The paper present the index of pavement performance and prediction method ,and suggest the pavement comprehensive evaluation index based on geometric average,then, Based on sequence grey pavement performance prediction. The prediction model of maitenance cost in truck highway is the essentioal content of the paper. Maintenance cost could be calculated by the application of multiple linear regression to get the feature years maintenance engineering quantity and mean maintenance cost.set up the relationship between