老龄化与治理现代化BI.PPT

* * * Mario Catani 马里奥·卡塔尼 Labor demand and supply by occupations in the LTC sector 长期护理行业岗位劳动力供需 Beijing, 19 September 2018 / 2018年9月19日，北京 SPECIAL EVENT POPULATION AGEING AND NATIONAL GOVERNANCE MODERNIZATION 老龄化与治理现代化 1. China: The ageing process 2. The number of elderly people who will need LTC; a first estimate 3. Occupations in LTC Sector 4. The number of workers that will be needed by the LTS system 5. Training implications Index 目录 中国: 老龄化进程 2. 有长期护理需求的老人数量；初步估计 3. 长期护理行业岗位 4. 长期护理体系所需职工数量 5. 培训相关 China: The ageing process 中国：老龄化进程 1.1 China: Population by main age group (absolute values in million and percentage composition) 中国：主要年龄群人口（绝对值与比例构成） Source: UN DESA, 2017 From 1950 to 2015 the number of people 65 and plus has increased five-fold and the percentage on total population from 4.4% to 9.7%. In the following 35 years the number of elderly will increase from 135 to 360 million and their percentage over total population will reach 26.1%. At the same time, those 80 and above will become almost one third of the elderly. 1950-2015年，中国65岁及以上人口数量增长了4倍，从原来占总人口的4.4%上升到9.7%。后续35年，同类老人数量将从1.35亿上升到3.6亿，占总人口比例将达26.1%。同时，20岁及以上人口将几乎占到老年人的三分之一。 2. The number of elderly people who will need LTC: a first estimate 有长期护理需求的老人数量:初步估计 2.1 China: Elderly disabled people by age group and level of impairment (percentage values) 中国：各年龄群残障人士数量和残障登记（比例值） Source: Li and Otani, 2017 - Data from the Beijing University China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, 2015 来源： Li和Otani, 2017- 北京大学《中国健康和养老追踪调查（2015）》 Elderly disabled people 失能老人 Mild 轻 Moderate 中 Severe 重 Total 总 65-74 7.2 1.4 1.0 9.6 75-84 11.0 3.0 1.9 15.9 85+ 19.3 8.5 4.1 31.9 According to a recent study by Li and Otani this is the structure of elderly disabled people by age group and level disability in China. Using this percentage and assuming constant the percentage reported below we have then estimated the number of elderly disabled people in 2030