龙卷数值模拟研究进展.pdf

气象科技 进展 龙卷数值模拟研究进展 姚聃 （中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081） 摘要：龙卷尺度小、生命期短，对其精细化观测十分困难，数值模拟是可行而有效的分析研究工具。龙卷的数值模拟主 要分为3类：第一类龙卷模拟针对简化的类龙卷涡旋进行模拟，研究龙卷的计算流体力学特征，不考虑母体风暴；第二 类龙卷模拟以水平均匀初始场触发强对流过程，研究超级单体风暴和其中生成的龙卷的精细化结构和演变过程，其初始 环境可以基于理想化或者实测探空廓线；第三类龙卷模拟基于再分析资料和资料同化进行模拟，研究实际环境中超级单 体风暴触发环境及龙卷的形成过程。重点回顾龙卷数值模拟方法和主要工作进展，分析影响龙卷数值模拟效果的关键问 题，包括龙卷生成机制、湍流过程与大涡模拟、数值敏感性以及受损物残骸等因素对龙卷模拟的影响。希望通过对这些 工作的回顾促进我国龙卷数值模拟研究和龙卷预报预警业务。 关键词：龙卷，超级单体，生成机制，触发环境，高分辨率，大涡模拟 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2018.02.003 Recent Progresses in the Numerical Simulation of Tornadoes Yao Dan (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081) Abstract: Numerical simulation is a powerful and feasible method to investigate the genesis and structures of tornadoes, due to their too small sizes and short duration to be captured by observations. This article briefly reviews the progress in simulating tornadoes. Laboratory simulators and highly theoretical tornado simulations are introduced first, followed by idealized simulations initiated with soundings and initial perturbations, as well as real-scenario simulations initiated with reanalysis data and data assimilation techniques. Key scientific issues concerning tornado simulation will be discussed, including the mechanism in tornadogenesis, turbulence and large eddy simulation, sensitivity and predictability, as well as the impact of tornado debris. It is hoped that this review may provide some useful information for performing high-resolution modeling studies of tornadoes in China. Keywords: tornado, supercell, tornadogenesis/formation mechanism, trigger environment, high resolution, large eddy simulation (LES) 0 引言