中尺度降水集合预报随机参数扰动方法敏感性试验-气象学报.pdf

doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.039 气象学报 中尺度降水集合预报随机参数扰动方法敏感性试验 1 *2 3 2 2 4 徐致真 陈静 王勇 李红祺 陈法敬 范宇恩 1 2 3 2 2 4 XU Zhizhen CHEN Jing WANG Yong LI Hongqi CHEN Fajing FAN Yuen 1. 中国气象科学研究院，北京，100081 2. 中国气象局数值预报中心，北京，100081 3. 奥地利中央气象和地球动力学研究所，维也纳，1040 4. 成都信息工程大学，成都，610225 1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 2. Numerical Weather Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 3. Department of forecasting models, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna 1040, Austria 4. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610025，China 2018-08-14 收稿 2018-12-27 改回. 徐致真，陈静，王勇，李红祺，陈法敬，范宇恩.2018.中尺度降水集合预报随机参数扰动方 法敏感性试验.气象学报，77 （待刊）： Xu Zhizhen, Chen Jing, Wang Yong, Li Hongqi, Chen Fajing，Fan Yuen.2018.Sensitivity test of stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations (SPP) scheme for mesoscale precipitation ensemble prediction. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 77 （in press）(in Chinese) Abstract There are great uncertainties in mesoscale precipitation model forecasting, to better represent the uncertainties of key parameters which are closely related to model precipitation forecasting in the physical processes, a Stochastically Perturbed Parameterizations (SPP) scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 key parameters in the cumulus convection, microphysics, boundary layer and surface layer parameterization schemes is developed in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enh