基于RSCPM模型的边坡失稳灾害预测及应用.pdfVIP

第 44 卷第 7 期 中南大学学报( 自然科学版) Vol.44 No.7 2013 年 7 月 Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology) July 2013 基于RS-CPM 模型的边坡失稳灾害预测及应用 李云1，刘霁1, 2 (1. 湖南城市学院 市政与测绘工程学院，湖南 益阳，413000; 2. 中南大学 资源与安全工程学院，湖南 长沙，410083) 摘要：提出基于粗糙集的边坡失稳灾害突变级数预测模型，选取介质容重、内聚力、内摩擦角、边坡角、边坡坡 高、孔隙压力比共 6 个预测指标，运用粗糙集理论进行属性约简和属性重要性排序，在此基础上开展突变级数的 指标浓缩，从而实现对边坡失稳灾害的预测。研究结果表明：该模型计算输出的各种指标预测值与实际值较吻合， 预测精度较高，可在实际工程中应用；这种方法克服了突变级数法难以判定属性重要度的缺点，计算简便，可操 作性强，为公路边坡风险提供了一种可行的预测方法。 关键词：RS-CPM 模型；粗糙集；突变级数；边坡失稳；预测模型 中图分类号：TU457 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672−7207(2013)07−2971−06 Slope instability disaster forecast and its application based on RS-CPM model LI Yun1, LIU Ji1, 2 (1. College of Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang 413000, China; 2. School of Resource and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China) Abstract: Based on the analysis of the instability disaster influencing factors of slope, medium unit weight, cohesion, internal friction angle, slope angle, slope height and pore pressure ratio were selected as the prediction indexes. The theory of the rough set and catastrophe progression method were integrated into a model to establish the instability disaster prediction model slope. Firstly, the rough set theory was used for the decision table creation, data mining, attribution importance ranking and reduction; then as the outputs processed by rough set theory, the table was put into the catastrophe