Chap29通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 理性预期Rational Expectations 根据理性预期理论，当人们在预期未来时，他们可以最好地应用他们所拥有的全部信息，包括关于政府政策的信息。 The theory of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future. 理性预期Rational Expectations 预期通货膨胀解释了为什么在短期而不是长期中存在着通货膨胀与失业之间的权衡。 Expected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run. 短期权衡取舍消失的速度取决于预期调整的速度。 How quickly the short-run tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust. 理性预期Rational Expectations 理性预期理论表明，牺牲率可能比估算的要小的多。 The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrifice-ratio could be much smaller than estimated. 沃尔克的反通货膨胀The Volcker Disinflation 在70年代保罗.沃尔克作为美联储主席时，通货膨胀已经美国要解决的最重要的问题之一。 When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman in the 1970s, inflation was widely viewed as one of the nation’s foremost problems. 沃尔克成功的使通货膨胀率从10％降低到4％，但却以高失业作为代价（1983年大约是10）。。Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation (from 10% to 4%), but at the cost of high employment (about 10% in 1983). Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 4 6 8 10 沃尔克的反通货膨胀 The Volcker Disinflation... 1979 1980 1983 1981 1982 1984 1986 1987 1985 A B C 格林斯潘时代The Greenspan Era 艾伦.格林斯潘作为美联储出席的时期，开始了有利的供给冲击。 Alan Greenspan’s term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock. 1986年，欧佩克成员国放弃了他们限制供给的协议。 In 1986, OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply. 这使得通过膨胀下降与失业减少。 This led to falling inflation and falling unemployment. Unemployment Rate (percent) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Inflation Rate (percent per year) 格林斯潘时代The Greenspan Era... 1984 1991 1985 1992 1993 1986 1994 1988 1987 1995 1989 1990 格林斯潘时代The Greenspan Era 最近几年的通货膨胀与失业的波动已经变小了，这归功于美联储的行动。 Fluctuations in inflation and unemployment in recent years have been relatively small due to the Fed’s act