随机控制实验了解接受远端祈祷心脏病病人的治疗效果.pptVIP

Questions The relationship of interest The ideal experiment The identification strategy The mode of inference The relation of interest Most questions are about casual and effect Example Smaller classes are better for the learning of the students Lower copayment encourages the health utilizations The estimates of regression shows the extent of “correlation”, but we are interested to know “causation” Key issue in empirical analysis is separating causation from correlation. Correlated means that two economic variables move together. Casual means that one of the variables is causing the movement in the other. THE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION BETWEEN CORRELATION AND CAUSATION There are many examples where causation and correlation get confused. It is critical for government policy to understand the difference; otherwise policy may not have the intended impact. THE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION BETWEEN CORRELATION AND CAUSATION One example concerns SAT preparation courses. In 1988, Harvard interviewed its freshmen and found those who took SAT “coaching” courses scored 63 points lower than those who did not. One dean concluded that the SAT courses were unhelpful and “the coaching industry is playing on parental anxiety.” The Problem In both examples, there is a common problem: an attempt to interpret a correlation as a causal relationship, without sufficient thought to the underlying data generating process. For any correlation between two variables A and B, there are three possible explanations for a correlation: A is causing B. B is causing A. Some other factor is causing both. The Problem In the Harvard SAT example, the possibilities could be: SAT prep courses worsen preparation for the SATs. Those with poorer test taking ability take prep courses to try to catch up. Those who are generally nervous both like to take prep courses and do the worst on standardized exams. Harvard dean thought the first possibility was correct. The Problem Although the peasants or the Harvard dean coul