我国上市公司偏好发放股票股利程度之决定因素及其对长期股价之影响.pdf

風險管 理學報 第六卷 第三期 2004 年 11 月 Journal of Risk Management Vol.6 No.3 Nov. 2004 pp.307-344 我國上市公司偏好發放股票股利程度之決定因素 * 及其對長期股價之影響 The Determinants of Preference for Issuing Stock Dividends and Its Impact on Long-Term Stock Performance: The Evidence from Taiwanese Firms ** 王祝三 (C. Edward Wang) 摘要 本文發現我國上市公司偏好發放股票股利程度的影響因素有成長機會、公司 風險、舉債程度、內部人持股、股市狀況、樂觀預期、獲利能力、稅賦考量、公 司規模、歷史股利、股價高低、產業特性共十二項變數。並且結果顯示，其中前 五項變數為導致現金股利和股票股利具替代關係之可能成因。另一方面，本研究 證實，整體而言，發放股票股利在短期內確可增加股東財富，不過此現象可能只 發生在高盈餘配股之公司。雖然其後股票績效如預期般反轉而下，但長期股票累 積異常報酬並不回歸零值，而是很快轉為負向且每下愈況，並且發放相對過高之 股票股利將使公司未來之長期股票績效更加惡化。 關鍵字：股票股利發放偏好、長期股票績效。 Abstract This study shows that growth opportunities, company risk, leverage, insider stockholding, stock market conditions (bull or bear), optimistic expectation, profitability, tax consideration, firm size, historic dividends, stock price, and industry characteristics have significant power in explaining relative payout ratios of stock dividends versus cash dividends. In addition, the evidence indicates that the substitution effect is driven by the first five of these variables. On the other hand, the findings show that stock-dividend distribution does increase shareholders’ wealth in the short run, but probably only for those firms paying high stock dividends. Then stock performance reverts as expected, but surprisingly the long-term CAR turns negative soon and the downward trend continues over the subsequent time perio