Shooting Free Throws英文文献资料.pdf

Shooting Free Throws (modified from a 2010 NCTM article) Consider a one-and-one free-throw situation (if you make the first, you get a second shot). Suppose your free-throw shooting percentage is 60% What would you guess is the most likely outcome: 0 points, 1 point, or 2 points? (Most students guess “1” with “2” coming in second.) This is a nice example to illustrate with simulation. Use RandInt(1,10) with 1-6 for making a shot, and 7-10 for missing. Or using a tree-diagram: Surprising result: most likely is 0 points! How would this conclusion change if your free-throw shooting % is greater or less than 60%? Make a guess! Added level of abstraction: need a variable to represent your probability of making a free throw: p Probability of a miss? Ans: 1-p What next? Might try a table: P(2 pts) P(1 pt) P(0 pts) Season % (p ) p 2 p (1- p) 1- p 0.1 0.01 0.09 0.9 0.2 0.04 0.16 0.8 0.3 0.09 0.21 0.7 0.4 0.16 0.24 0.6 0.5 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.6 0.36 0.24 0.4 0.7 0.49 0.21 0.3 0.8 0.64 0.16 0.2 0.9 0.81 0.09 0.1 When shooting percentage is between 0.1 to slightly over 0.6, the most common outcome is 0 points, and beyond that the most common outcome is 2 points. Never 1 point! 2 Might try graphs of Y = p