12环境概论第12讲 Regional and Global Atmospheric Changes.ppt

Summary Recent warming of the climate system is unequivocal. 近来的气候变暖是很明确的 It is very likely caused by human activities. 很有可能是由人类的行为引起 Climate models are not perfect and give different projections, but most models show a warming climate in the 21st century. 气候模型还不完美，并且给出的预测是不同的，但是大部分的模型都显示21世纪的气候正在变暖 Who should take action? 谁应当采取行动？ Government 政府 Scientist 科学家 Business 商业 NGO’s 非政府机构 Individuals 个人 Communities 社会团体 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Activity to show how human emissions are tiny compared to the co2 that is released by the land and the sea each year (land 440gtonnes / sea 330 Gtonnes / man 26 Gtonnes+6 gtonnes due to change of land use ie deforestation for farm) but that the sea and land ‘fix’ their own co2 where as man doesn’t. The bit left over, about 15gtonnes is made by man and is the bit that yr on yr is leading to climate change. See attached activity 人类的排放比起土地和海洋的排放量来说是非常小的（土地4400亿吨，海洋3300亿吨，人类260亿吨+60亿吨由于改变土地使用（如砍伐森林变为农田）带来的排放）。但是，土地和海洋的排放是固定的，而人类的不是。人类的排放一年一年逐渐造成了气候变化。 * * Research from the climate science community over the past decade has strengthened the causal links between observed changes in Earth’s climate system and human activities Assessments from the 3 working groups of the intergovernmental panel on climate change * * ‘ Very likely’ The language is getting stronger and more certain. Scientists by nature are conservative with the publication of their findings * * * * Precipitation levels Desertification in the north Flooding in the south * Heat waves directly affect human health. The spread of mosquitoes and other disease carriers could indirectly affect human health. (Will be largest problem in developing countries.) * Agriculture already stressed to produce enough food for a growing population. Crop growth may increase in some areas and decrease in others. Flooding of deltas, which are prime farmland. Increase in droughts in other areas. Increase in pests to crops and weeds.