时间数列研究报告.PPTVIP

O:/Network/Path/Filename.ppt Time Series Analysis Benefits and Uses of Time Series Benefits of time series Monitor sales performance over time… remove variation in monthly sales caused by calendar differences and seasonality that can conceal potential problems with sales Accurately determine the direction and rate of growth/decline in sales Quickly identify changes in sales trends and correlate them to factors affecting sales… industry, company, competition Improve decision making regarding sales and marketing actions Uses of time series Assess current sales performance and evaluate the effectiveness of sales programs Determine underlying sales trend and project year end sales Establish appropriate budgets for next year and estimate monthly budget spreads Time Series Analysis What is Time Series Analysis? How are Time Series plots developed? What are the advantages of Time Series Analysis? What are Time Series used for? What is Time Series Analysis ? Time series analysis is a statistical technique used to analyze and monitor sales volume over time. Why Time Series ? Beer sales are highly seasonal It is very difficult to evaluate monthly sales over time. How do time series work? Monthly variation in sales is caused by two major factors Seasonality Selling Days (calendar effects) Time Series technique statistically removes the effects of these two factors Time Series technique uses the X-11 procedure for seasonal adjustments The X-11 procedure was developed by the U.S. Bureau of Census in the 1950’s. It was brought to A-B in the early 1960’s and has become the standard for reporting sales. How do time series adjust sales ? A selling day adjustment factor for each month is computed and applied to the raw sales This factor allows you to compare months as if they had the same number of selling days … e.g. accurately compare the June this year vs. June last year A seasonal factor is computed and applied to the selling day adjusted sales This factor, when a