基于航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型.pdf

基于航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型 邢志伟 1，冯文星 1,2，罗谦 2* ，李学哲 1,2，白楠 1,2，潘野 2 ，李定亮 2 （1. 中国民航大学航空自动化学院 天津 300300 ；2. 中国民航局第二研究所 成都 610041 ） 【摘要 】通过对单航班离港旅客在航站楼聚集行为的动力学分析， 证明了旅客的到达聚集行为在群体层面受截止时间影 响服从重尾分布，并且存在混合分布特性；揭示了航班截止时间的变化对旅客行为重尾特性的影响规律。在此基础之上基于 对数正态分布与回归分析建立了航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型， 并通过仿真验证证明了模型拟合度达到 80% 以上具有工程推广价值。 关 键 词 ：人类动力学；群体行为；重尾分布；对数正态分布；模型 中图分类号 [U8] 文献标志码 A Arrived Passenger Model in Single Flight based on the Time of Departure 1 1,2 2 1,2 1,2 2 2 XING Zhi-wei , FENG Wen-xing , LUO Qian , LI Xue-zhe , BAI Nan , PAN Ye , LI Ding-liang (1. Aeronautical Automation College Civil Aviation University of China Tianjin 300300 2. The Second Research Institute of Civil Aviation administration of China Chengdu 610041) Abstract The arrival aggregation behavior of a single flight departing passengers at the group level affected by the deadline is proved to obey heavy-tailed distribution with mixed distribution characteristics through the dynamics analysis about the passengers ’ behavior at Terminal, and reveals the influence that the changes of flight deadline had done to the heavy tail characteristics of passengers’behavior. On this basis, the Arrived Passenger Model in Single Flight based on the Time of Departure （TD-SFAPM ） is built ，on account of the log-normal distribution and the regression analysis. The accuracy of the model is proved to be more than 80 percent by simulation which has project promotional value. Key words human dynamics; group behavior ; heavy-tailed distribution; log-normal distribution ; model 近年来我国民航业持续高速发展，据民航局行 与 MURINO T 等人采用离散事件仿真技术模拟了旅 业发展统计公报显示，自