城市化进程中人口变动对气候变化的影响机制.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 11 城市化进程?中人口变动?对气候变化?的影响机制?：理论框架与?协整检验 HYPER?LINK 4:8080/query?/brows?e_doc?ument?.jsp \l # 姚从容 【专题名称】 HYPER?LINK 4:8080/query?/brows?e_doc?ument?.jsp \l # 生态环境与?保护【专 题 号】N2【复印期号】2013年?03期【原文出处】《 HYPER?LINK 4:8080/query?/brows?e_doc?ument?.jsp \l # 城市发展研?究》(京)2012年?10期第8?6～91，103页【英文标题】Mecha?nism of Popul?ation? Chang?e on Clima?te Chang?e in the Urban?izati?on Proce?ss: ??　Theor?etica?l Frame?work and Co-integ?ratio?n Test【作者简介】姚从容(1977-　)，女，经济学博士?，南开大学经?济学院人口?与发展研究?所副教授，研究方向：环境经济学?，主要研究方?向：区域与城市?规划(天津　30007?1)。 【内容提要】 21世纪人?类正面临着?气候变化与?人口城市化?的双重挑战?，城市化带动?的人口大规?模空间集聚?，以及现代化?生产方式和?生活方式对?传统方式的?替代，使得城市人?均碳排放量?迅速增加，导致城市热?岛效应加剧?，局地气候变?化显著。论文在Ka?ya恒等式?和STIR?PAT模型?的基础上，利用协整的?方法发现在?1978～2008年?间，我国碳排放?量与人口规?模、城市化水平?、产业结构、人均GDP?和单位GD?P碳排放强?度之间存在?着长期均衡?关系。其中，对碳排放影?响最显著的?是单位GD?P碳强度和?人均GDP?，其次是人口?规模和城市?化水平，只有产业结?构变动对碳?排放的影响?是反方向的?。寻找适合本?国国情的低?碳城市化发?展模式将成?为世界各国?面临的重要?议题，尤其是对于?中国这样一?个经济快速?发展的人口?大国，工业化和城?市化是不可?阻挡的发展?潮流，如何实现人?口城市化与?减缓气候化?的双赢已迫?在眉睫。Clima?te chang?e and popul?ation? urban?izati?on are dual chall?enges? for human? being? in the 21[st] centu?ry. As a resul?t of urban?izati?on, per capit?al carbo?n emiss?ion is incre?asing? rapid?ly in the urban?, which? lead to heat islan?d effec?t and clima?te chang?e in the part of regio?ns. Based? on the Kaya equat?ion and STIRP?AT model?, this paper? uses the co-integ?ratio?n test, exami?ning the long-time impac?ts of popul?ation? urban?izati?on on carbo?n emiss?ion in China?. The resul?ts show that per capit?al GDP and per GDP carbo?n emiss?ion, popul?ation? size, the level? of urban?izati?on, and struc?ture of indus?try were all impor?tant facto?rs deter?minin?g carbo?n emiss?ion from 1978 to 2008. Seeki?ng the low-carbo?n urban?izati?on devel?opmen?t model? shoul?d be a serio?us issue? for many count?ries in the world?, espec?ially? for the devel?oping? count?ry, indus?trial?izati?on and urban?izati?on becom?e impas?sable? trend?s in the futur?e. There?fore, how to accom?plish? the win-win situa?tion of popu