中国石油天然气上下游基金投资风险管理策略教材.pptVIP

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中国石油天然气上下游基金投资风险管理策略教材.ppt

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Proactive Structural Strategic China/GLobalFund Risk Management China/Global oil, gas ,housing industry market fundamental mechanism, risks Early Warning Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) 中國石油天然氣上下游基金投資風險管理策略 Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on China/Global Macro-economic Control, Oil, Gas, Housing demand, pricesMechanism and Investment Risks Simulation/Forecasts Warren Huang ( 黃華南博士) ,Ph D,Founder/CEO OSA Global Strategic Management wh3928@/ osawhh@ Revision for China Fund World , Pudong Conference, March 5,2008 Lecture Summary Proactive Structural Risks Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis OSA Methodology: Two master hands controlling last 20 years Global energy,housing,asset price bubble burst Mechanism, Allocation Fund Risks early warning 1. China/Global Country Risks : Macro economic control, housing bubble burst, mortgage crisis policy impact on inflation, recession, interest rates analysis 2. Currency Risks: Interest rate, trade surplus impact on RMB, global currency market forces mechanism, currency crisis forecasts 3. Credit Risks: Oil, gas, China/Foreign players cash flow, profits, housing price bubble burst impact on credit rating and loan defaults risk4. Operational Risks: All phases of oil, gas, power, banking, finance, daily trading, profit performance risks reporting, monitoring, simulation. 5. Market Risks: Proactive VaR pricing for housing ,banking, finance oil, gas, demand, performance, stock, derivatives prices dynamics mechanism forecast 6. Causes, onset, recovery of disaster, energy,banking,mortgage, financial crisis, asset prices bubble, debt, equities, properties NPL 7. Risks Hedging: Oil, gas, currency, interest rate futures, derivatives prices forecasts, risks hedging. 8. Corporate Governance: Operating, Cost, Financial accounting data tracking, asset price bubble and scandals cycles earning warning 9 M/A , IPO Risks :Joint ventures, pre and post M/A and IPO pe