中国PM25序列惯性特征及政策含义-中国环境科学.pdf

中国环境科学 2019,39(6) ：2659~2666 China Environmental Science 中国 PM2.5 序列惯性特征及政策含义 毛学峰,杜 锐,王西琴* ( 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京 100872) 摘要：基于北京、成都、广州、上海、沈阳 5 大城市 2009~2017 年的小时 PM2.5 质量浓度监测数据,利用 AR 模型、未知内生结构断点检验和 TAR 型等方法实证分析了 PM2.5 序列惯性特征、结构变化和放大效应.研究发现,5 大城市 PM2.5 序列惯性均较强,其中成都 PM2.5 序列惯性最强,北京、上海 和广州在 2009~2017 年之间发生了结构性变化.5 大城市的 PM2.5 序列存在明显的非线性,各大城市 PM2.5 总体在低区制运行,而且惯性特征明显,但不存 在明显的放大效应,这就意味着雾霾防治不需要考虑 PM2.5 序列的放大效应,未来政策应当更加聚焦于低区制下 PM2.5 序列惯性特征. 关键词：惯性；TAR 模型；结构变化；PM2.5 中图分类号：X196 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2019)06-2659-08 Analysis of inertial characteristics of PM2.5 sequences and its policy implications in China. MAO Xue-feng, DU Rui, WANG * Xi-qin (School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China). China Environmental Science, 2019,39(6)：2659~2666 Abstract ：This paper empirically analyzed the inertial characteristics, structural changes and amplification effects of PM2.5 sequences using AR model and TAR model, using hourly PM2.5 mass concentration monitoring data from 2009 to 2017 in Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang. There existed relatively strong inertia of PM2.5 sequences in the five cities, especially in Chengdu. It was also found that there were structural changes from 2009 to 2017 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The PM2.5 sequences of the five cities are obviously nonlinear. The PM2.5 in the five cities were running at a low level, and the inertial characteristics were obvious. In addition, there was no obvious amplification effect, suggesting that the haze pollution prevention was not necessary to consider the amplification effect of the PM2.5 sequence. The inertial characteristics of the PM2.5 sequences at the low regime required more attention in policy-making in the future. Key words ：inertia；TAR model ；structura