海河流域近51年降水量时空变化特征-南水北调与水利科技.pdf

第 13 卷 第6 期 南 水 北 调 与 水 利 科 技 Vol.13 No. 6 2015 年12 月 South2to2 North Water Transfers and Water Science Technology Dec. 2015 DOI: 10. 13476/ j . cnki. nsbdqk. 2015. 06. 009 51 束美珍, 刘丽红 ( 安徽理工大学 地球与环境学院, 安徽 淮南 232001) : 利用海河流域1960 年- 2010 年 25 个典型气象站点的逐月降雨量资料, 采用线性回归法、累计距平法分析海 河流域年际降雨特征, 应用皮尔逊 III 型曲线法综合分析降雨量的概率分布, 运用空间插值法分析海河流域降雨的 空间变化特征。结果表明: 海河流域近51 年来降雨量呈现微弱下降趋势, 且近年来下降趋势稳定。海河流域丰水 年较少, 枯水年较多, 且有加剧的趋势, 年内降雨极不均匀, 季节变化明显, 降雨量空间上由南向北逐渐递减。 : 线性回归; 累计距平; 皮尔逊Ó 型频率曲线; 空间插值; 降雨特征; 时空变化; 海河流域 : P333 :A : 16722 1683( 2015) 062 1065204 Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Haihe River Basin in recent 51 years SHU Mei2zhen, LIU L2i hong (College of Globe and Envi ronment, A nhui Science and T echnology Univers ity , H uainan 232001, China) Abstract: Based on the monthly reci itation data of 25 meteorological stations in the Haihe River Basin f rom 1960 to 2010, the inter2 annual reci itation characteristics in the Haihe River Basin w ere analyzed using the linear regression and cumulative a2 nomaly curve methods.T he robability dist ribution of reci itation was analyzed using the Pearson III curve method, and the s atial variation of reci itation was analyzed using the s atial inter olation method.T he results show ed that ( 1) reci itation in the H aihe River Basin has a slightly decreasing trend in recent 51 years, and the decreasing trend is stable recently ; ( 2) there is a trend w ith more w et years w hile less dry years in the H aihe River Basin and the trend is increasing; ( 3) seasonal variation of reci itation is obvious; and (4) reci it ation decreases trend from the south to the north. Key words: linear regression; cumulative an