《非常规突发水灾害应急主体协同演化建模与仿真》【毕业设计论文】.docVIP

精品毕业论文 毕 业 论 文 论文题目： 非常规突发水灾害应急主体 协同演化建模与仿真 年级专业 信息管理与信息系统 学 号 学生姓名 指导教师 二○一二年六月 精品毕业论文 摘 要 非常规突发水灾害是指社会没有经历或很少经历过的，缺乏对其演化规律的知识和处置经验的水灾害。其应急主体系统是一个包含众多复杂主体的自组织适应系统。 本文首先探讨非常规突发水灾害的定义及其管理相关问题，同时对协同演化算法做了简单概述。然后总结主体的特点，并结合其特点，将非常规突发水灾害应急主体划分为五大类：政府、政府内部相关部门、企业、灾民、救灾组织，并探讨了各主体的特征及属性。接着，改进生态学中的Logistic模型，构建非常规突发水灾害应急主体系统的动力学模型，利用控制变量法，分别模拟研究应急主体的初始应急能力、应急能力的固有增长率、最大应急能力、应急主体数量和主体间的竞争协作系数对应急过程中应急能力的影响。模拟结果表明：应急主体的初始应急能力和固有增长率对主体的应急能力无关，但会影响其达到协同稳定所需的时间；应急主体的最大应急能力和应急主体数量会影响主体的应急能力；主体间的竞争协作效应是影响应急主体应急能力的关键因素。最后，针对非常规突发水灾特点，结合模拟结果，提出了如何提高该类灾害应急主体应急能力的相关建议。 关键词：水灾害；主体；演化；Logistic模型 Abstract The unconventional brust water disaster is the disaster that the society has not experienced or experienced few times and lacks the knowledge of its evolution and the experience to deal with it. The emergency agent system of this water disaster is a self-organization adaptive system which contains many complex agents. This article explores the definition of the unconventional brust water disaster and the related problems about its management firstly. At the same time ,it overviews the algorithms of co-evolution simply. Then we summarize the characteristics of the agent. Basing on the characteristics, we divide the emergency agent of the unconventional brust water disaster into five main categories: government, relevant departments of the government, business, victims, disaster relief organizations, and discuss the characteristics and properties of these emergent agents. Then, we improve the Logistic model in ecology and build a dynamics model for the emergent agent system of the unconventional brust water disaster. Using the way of control variables, we research the initial capacity of emergency, the inherent growth rate of the capacity of emergency, the largest capability of emergency, the number of the emergency agents and the degree of collaborati