德意志银行-xx医疗保健业-china healthcare 36 drugs included in nrdl through negotiation-20170719-deutschebank.pdfVIP

China Healthcare Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China China Healthcare 19 July 2017 Hong Kong Health Care Industry Update Health Care 36 drugs included in NRDL through negotiation Jack Hu, PhD Impact: new additions to benefit clearly; a zero sum game We believe all 36 new additions are likely to benefit from significant volume Research Analyst growth acceleration, while industry experts expect 2-4x upside depending on the +852-2203 6208 magnitude of existing coverage on PRDL. We highlight the following: Linc Yiu ■ Hengrui and CMS should benefit from the new additions as well. We Research Associate keep apatinib estimates unchanged as we have already assumed NRDL +852-2203 6248 inclusion, while we increase our Xinhuosu estimate for 2018 by 34%. Top picks ■ We also believe the inclusion of Seroquel is positive for HCM but negative Hengrui Medicine (600276.SS),CNY50.55 Buy for Fosun, as Fosun markets a generic version. Also, the inclusion of Sino Buy Victoza should be slightly negative for 3SBio.