德意志银行-南非行业研究-sa platinum：1q17 sa platinum：further downgrades-20170705-deutschebank.pdfVIP

SA Platinum Deutsche Bank Markets Research Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Date South Africa SA Platinum 5 July 2017 Platinum Recommendation Change 1Q17 SA Platinum: further downgrades Patrick Mann, CFA Industry burning cash in well-supplied market unless there is a supply response We have lowered our price targets by an average of 10% for the platinum miners Research Analyst after marking to spot and slightly lowering both our 2017E and 2018E forecast +27- -775-7282 Rand-Basket price by 1%. We upgrade Northam to a Hold (R39ps PT), despite a 4% cut to our price target, on recent share price movement. We have unchanged Key Changes recommendations on Amplats (Buy, R315ps PT), Impala (Hold, R36ps PT), Lonmin Company Target Price Rating AMSJ.J 335.00 to - (Sell, R8ps/GBp48ps PT) and RBPlat (Hold, R28ps PT). We are negative overall on 315.00 the sector, as at spot further financial forecast and valuation downgrades would LONJ.J 10.00 to 8.00 - occur - more than half of 2017E production is cash flow negative after SIB capex . IMPJ.J 38.00 to 36.00 - We maintain our view that the Rand-price is likely to remain at or around the LMI.L 50.00 to 48.00 - marginal cost of production until 2020E. A risk to our well-supplied market vie