德意志银行-xx煤炭行业-20170802-deutschebank-chinacoalindustry：higherforlonger–reiteratebuyoncoalsector.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China China Coal Industry 2 August 2017 Resources Metals Mining Forecast Change James Kan Higher for longer – reiterate Buy on Research Analyst (+852 ) 2203 6146 coal sector james.kan@ Further upgrade of QHD price forecasts; we re-iterate Buy on coal stocks Key Changes Coal prices in China have stayed above Chinese government guidance of Company Target Price Rating RMB535/t for an extended period and our recent checks lead us to believe the 1088.HK 25.00 to - coal price will likely remain at elevated levels through 2017 and into 2018 due 26.50(HKD) to slow ramp-ups of new supply and resilient demand. We upgrade our QHD 0639.HK 2.00 to 2.40(HKD) - price forecasts by 2%, 11%, and 12% for 2017, 2018, and 2019, to RMB620/t, Source: Deutsche Bank RMB600/t, and RMB580/t. We believe consensus remains too low in its coal price and coal company earnings forecasts. We raise our earnings forecasts by Top picks 11-140% and reiterate Buy on coal stocks. Our top pick is Shenhua, with a new China Shenhua Energy Buy target pric