德意志银行-全球经济展望：美国最先意味着亚洲最后-20170602-deutschebank.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Research Asia Economics Date Global Global Economic 2 June 2017 North America Perspectives Does America First mean Asia Last? ■ Asian economies have enjoyed a robust recovery in exports over the past Peter Hooper, PhD year, supported by stronger growth in the G3 and Chinese economies Chief Economist and a surge of commodity prices that restored demand in other emerging +1-212-250-7352 markets. While the latter effect may mean that export growth has peaked, it is quite likely that 2017 will see the strongest export growth in at least Michael Spencer, PhD six years. Chief Economist ■ An important risk remains, though in a US administration that is openly +852-2203 8303 more sceptical about the benefits of free trade and of multilateral efforts Torsten Slok, PhD to support it. But while bilateral negotiations may be easier to conduct, this approach is flawed in its suggestion that trade is a zero-sum game Chief Economist of winners and losers and because the elimination of US current account +1-212-250-2155 deficits is likely to require domestic policy changes to raise public and Matthew Luzzetti, PhD private savings rates rather than tariff and other measures that are likely to redirect rather than reduce those deficits. Senior Economist