国家风险评估及管理教材.ppt

第十一讲 国家风险评估及管理;Why Country Risk Analysis Is Important;３.Country risk analysis can be used: to monitor countries where the MNC is currently doing business; as a screening device to avoid conducting business in countries with excessive risk; and to revise its investment or financing decisions in light of recent events.;the companies that assess country risk.;Political Risk Factors;Political Risk Factors;E. War Internal and external battles, or even the threat of war, can have devastating effects. The 2003 War in Iraq F. Bureaucracy(官僚） Bureaucracy can complicate businesses. G. Corruption（腐败） Corruption can increase the cost of conducting business or reduce revenue.;Corruption Perceptions Index;Corruption Index Ratings for Selected Countries;Find out more about Transparency International and the Corruption Perceptions Index by visiting /documents/cpi/2001/cpi2001.html.;Financial Risk Factors;Examples of political risks;Examples of financial risks;What are the political and financial outlook for various countries? ; Types of Country Risk Assessment;Assessments of country risks;Country risks;Techniques of Assessing Country Risk;Techniques of Assessing Country Risk;Often, firms use a variety of techniques for making country risk assessments. For example, they may use the checklist approach to develop an overall country risk rating, and some of the other techniques to assign ratings to the factors. 例如，国际国家风险指南（ICRG），设置了一个加权平均指数来反映国家风险，该指数由50%的政治风险指标、25%的金融风险指标和25%的经济风险指标构成。;　　　Measuring Country Risk;Cougar Co.:Determining the Overall Country Risk Rating;Cougar Co.:Derivation of the Overall Country Risk Rating;注意： The procedures for quantifying country risk will vary with the assessor, the country being assessed, as well as the type of operations being planned. Firms use country risk ratings when screening potential projects, and when monitoring existing projects.;Adjustment of the Discount Rate The higher the perceived risk, the higher the discount rate that should be