高速铁路对沿线区域经济发展的影响.PDFVIP

高速铁路对沿线区域经济发展的影响 ——以沪宁城际为例 胡军红，施佳佳 （南京工业大学交通运输工程学院,江苏 南京 210009） 摘 要： 为研究高速铁路对沿线区域经济发展的影响，本文以沪宁城际为例，首先通过灰色预测模 型预测 “无”高铁时沿线各市 GDP、固定资产投资额、就业人口、一二三产业增值等经济指标值，其 次采用有无对比的方法分析沪宁城际对沿线城市各经济指标的贡献率，最后运用层次分析法确定各经 济指标的权重，计算综合贡献率；结果分析表明，高铁对沿线区域经济发展有明显的推进作用，其中 正面影响是主要的，同时也易造成要素资源 “逆向流动”等负面影响；在此基础上，提出了要抓住高 铁发展机遇，调整产业结构转型，警惕虹吸效应等政策建议，进而为高铁沿线区域促进经济发展提供 实际参考依据。 关键词： 高速铁路；区域经济发展；层次分析；灰色预测模型 中图分类号：[U-9] The Impact of High-speed Railway on Regional Economic Development along the Line ——Taking Shanghai-Nanjing Intercity as an Example HU Junhong,Shi Jiajia (College of Transportation Engineering, Nanjing Technology University, Nanjing 210009) Abstract: In order to study the impact of high-speed railway on the economic development along the line, this paper takes Shanghai-Nanjing Intercity as an example. Firstly, the Grey prediction model is used to predict the GDP, the fixed assets investment, the employed population, and the value added of the industries of each city along the line.Secondly, using the method of comparison or not to analyze the contribution rate of Shanghai-Nanjing intercity to various economic indicators along the line cities.Finally, the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each economic indicator and calculate the comprehensive contribution rate.The analysis of the results shows that the role of high-speed rail in promoting the economic development along the line is obvious, and its positive impact is the main one, but it is also easy to cause negative impacts such as “reverse flow” of factor resources.On this basis, the paper puts forward the policy recommendations for grasping the development opportunities of