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Introduction to Forecasting and
Demand Planning
上海市信息技术培训中心
021Agenda
? 1. Forecasting basics.
? 2. The demand management process.
? 3. The demand planning cycle.
? 4. Maintaining a high quality forecast.
Agenda
?Forecasting basics.
?The need for a forecast.
?The forecast dilemma.
?The principles, components, aggregation, sources of data and KPIs of a forecast.
?The demand management process.
?The demand planning cycle.
?Maintaining a high quality forecast.
?The show stoppers.
The Need for a Forecast
? Forecasting in FMCGs is of a great importance to the business:
1. It gives the organization the needed Visibility to future demand and
requirements, hence capacities, budgets and utilizations can be planned.
2. Forecast is used to ensure products availability OTIF(On Time In Full
Delivery).
3. Used to estimate the Financial Forecast.
4. Used by business partners in both the upstream and downstream to better
Plan their resources ahead.
The Forecast Dilemma
Different functions have different views of the forecast &
expectations
as well!! Key stakeholders are: ? ?Marketing
? ?Sales
? ?Finance
? ?Supply Chain & Operations
? ?Top Management
The Forecast Dilemma
Marketing:
?High growth rates and sometimes exponential especially in the long term.
?Intensive promos & innovations.
?High budget to make it happen.
?Try to maximize the product mix to meet all consumers n
The Forecast Dilemma
Sales:
?Little bit conservative, and sometimes pessimistic too.
?Probably knows the markets the best.
?Always pointing out to stock availability issues and its effect on sales.
?Always playing it as safe as possible.
?Wishing to have the biggest product mix to fulfill all customers needs.
The Forecast Dilemma
Finance:
?Looking for a stable growth for the P&L.
?Willing to give the least possible budget as much as possible to promote
?Trying to rationalize the product mix to minimize SLOBs(Slow Moving and Obsolete (SLOBS inventories).
?Hoping to release the minimal possible budget fo
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