2020年6月世界经济展望 .pdfVIP

June 2020 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO)forecast. The COVID- 19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent . Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID- 19 projections of January 2020. The adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s. As with the April 2020 WEOprojections, there is a high er-than-usual degree of uncertainty around this forecast. The baselineprojection rests on key assumptions about the fallout from the pandemic. In economies with declining infection rates, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; greater scarring (damage to supply potential)from the larger -than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters of 2020; and a hit toproductivity as surviving businesses ramp up necessary workplace safety and hygiene practices. For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity. Moreover, the forecast assumes that financial conditions—which have easedfollowing