新冠病毒流行背景下发展中国家贫困和弱势群体临时基本收入估算报告.docxVIP

TEMPORARY BASIC INCOME: Protecting Poor and Vulnerable People in Developing Countries GEORGE GRAY MOLINA AND EDUARDO ORTIZ-JUAREZ1 ABSTRACT As the rate of new COVID-19 cases accelerates across the developing world, it exposes the potentially devastating costs of job losses and income reversals. Unconditional emergency cash transfers can mitigate the worst immediate effects of the COVID-19 crisis on poor and near-poor households that do not currently have access to social assistance or insurance protection. This paper provides estimates for a Temporary Basic Income (TBI), a minimum guaranteed income above the poverty line, for vulnerable people in 132 developing countries. A TBI amounts to between 0.27 and 0.63 per cent of their combined GDPs, depending on the policy choice: top-ups on existing average incomes in each country up to a vulnerability threshold; lump-sum transfers that are sensitive to cross-country differences in the median standard of living; or, lump-sum transfers that are uniform regardless of the country where people live. A temporary basic income is within reach and can inform a larger conversation about how to build comprehensive social protection systems that make the poor and near-poor more resilient to economic downturns in the future. George Gray Molina is Head of Strategic Policy Engagement and Chief Economist at BPPS, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); email: george.gray.molina@. Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez is Researcher at King’s College London; email: eduardo.ortiz@kcl.ac.uk. The authors would like to thank Almudena Fernandez, Balazs Horvath, Luis Felipe Lopez-Calva, Abdoulaye Mar Dieye, Matias Morales, Mansour Ndiaye, and Kanni Wignaraja from UNDP; Leopoldo Tornarolli from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Fabio Duran, Ian Orton, and Shahrashoub Razavi from the International Labour Organization (ILO); Kim Bolch from the University of Oxford; and Christoph Lakner and Daniel Gerszon Mahler from the World Bank for exc