北京市商品住房市场供求状态的非均衡分析.docVIP

北京市商品住房市场供求状态的非均衡分析 116 The Disequilibrium Model of Supply and Demand Status of Beijing Commercial Housing Market Shuai Gao*, Hong Zhang Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing * Abstract This paper constructed the econometric model of demand and supply disequilibrium logarithm based on the analysis of sustained increases in housing prices caused by the unbalanced supply and demand situation in Beijing commercial housing market. The demand and supply of commer- cial housing were affected by per capital disposable income, commercial housing price, people’s expectations and the cost of housing, city scale etc. It is further carried out by the empirical re- search with 1994~2012 statistical data. Meanwhile, the disequilibrium degree index of the effec- tive demand and supply of commodity housing that can reflect the undulation actual situation of Beijing commercial housing was calculated. Besides, this paper gave a realistic interpretation for the disequilibrium degree from three stages. Finally, it gave the corresponding policy recommen- dations about approximate approach to Watras equilibrium as reference for the government ma- croeconomic regulation and control. Keywords Commercial Housing Market, Effective Demand, Effective Supply, Disequilibrium Model, The Nonlinear Least Square Method, Disequlibrium Degree 北京市商品住房市场供求状态的非均衡分析 高 帅*，张 红 清华大学，建设管理系，北京 *通讯作者。 北京市商品住房市场供求状态的非均衡分析 117 收稿日期：2014年10月4日；修回日期：2014年11月5日；录用日期：2014年11月12日 摘 要 本文在分析北京市商品住房市场供求非均衡现状引起房价的持续上涨的基础上，构建了房地产供求的非 均衡对数计量经济模型，得出了商品住房供求受人均可支配收入、商品住房价格、人们的预期、房地产 成本、城市规模等因素影响的结论。进一步采用1994~2011年的相关商品住房统计数据进行实证分析， 计算出了历年北京市商品住房市场有效供求的非均衡度，发现非均衡度可以灵敏的反映出北京市房地产 市场有效供求关系的波动状态，并分三个阶段对非均衡度给予了现实的解释。最后，对北京商品住房市 场向瓦尔拉斯均衡逼近，提出了相应的政策建议，可作为政府宏观调控的参考依据。 关键词 商品住房市场，有效需求，有效供给，非均衡模型，非线性最小二乘法，非均衡度 1. 引言 进入 21世纪，中国许多城市房价快速上涨，居高不下的房价，使这些城市的房价收入比过高，尤其 使得刚性需求者购房困难重重，从而引发了一系列社会矛盾；另一方面，过高的房价可能导致房地产泡