基于SIR模型的微信舆情病毒式传播研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 自1999 年中国2G 上线伊始，短短20 年内，中国网络已经步入5G 时代。随 着网络的兴起，各种网络软件被民众所熟知与使用，微信便是其中被广泛使用的 一款软件。随着国内网民对于微信使用习惯的逐渐养成和巩固，微信已经逐步成 为社会舆情爆发和扩散的重要场域，有关微信舆情的研究已经成为新闻学以及传 播学学科的重要研究方向。其中，如何精准的掌握微信舆情的传播特征以及研究 其扩散机制已经成为社会治理的重要议题。 本文将通过文献梳理，着重讨论微信的传播特征；同时，将以SIR 传染病模 型为基准，以案例来对微信舆情的扩散机制进行分析；并基于以上所得出的数据 分析结果来尝试构建可用于微信舆情引导的机制。 本文最终认为，有关微信的各类舆情如群聊，朋友圈以及各类公众号等这三 类舆情分别具有“关系链”和“多点辐射”式的传播特点，结合SIR 传染病模型 对微信舆情扩散趋势进行建模后得出，“感染率”和“免疫率”是影响微信舆情 扩散的最要因素，最后从病原体、感染者、传染渠道以及管理部门媒介素养四方 面讨论了微信舆情的多元引导构想。 关键词：病毒传播；SIR 模型；微信舆情；引导模式；机制 I Abstract Since 1999, when 2G was launched in China, Chinas network has stepped into the 5G era within 20 years. With the rise of the Internet, a variety of network software is known and used by the public, Wechat is one of the widely used software. With the gradual formation and consolidation of domestic Internet usersusage habits on Wechat, wechat has gradually become an important field for social sentiment to erupt and spread, the study of public sentiment on Wechat has become an important research direction of journalism and communication. Among them, how to accurately grasp the spread characteristics of Wechat public opinion and study its diffusion mechanism has become an important issue of social governance. This article will discuss the spread characteristics of Wechat through literature review, and analyze the spread mechanism of wechat public sentiment based on the Sir Infectious Disease Model And based on the above data and analysis results to try to build a mechanism that can be used to guide public sentiment on Wechat. Finally, the author of this paper concludes the WeChat all kinds of public opinion, such as chatting, friends and all kinds of public, etc. These thre