基于四阶段法地城市轨道交通客流预测模型研究.pdfVIP

基于四阶段法的城市轨道交通客流预 测模型研究 摘 要 i 关键词： 轨道交通客流预测通过预测线路断面流量、换乘流量、车站出入口流量 为规划线网方案的评价、轨道建设提供重要的量化指标，其对于轨道交通项目的 科学决策具有重要的意义。 本文主要内容如下： （1）阐述国内外轨道交通预测研究现状和发展趋势，研究背景和研究意义； （2 ）介绍传统四阶段法基本原理和方法，并指出传统四阶段法存在的不足， 并提出了改进方法； （3 ）针对传统四阶段法的不足进行了改进，按出行目的和小区区位建立改进 的四阶段法轨道交通预测模型； （4 ）以某轨道交通网络为研究对象，运用改进的四阶段法进行客流预测。 关键词： 四阶段法；轨道交通；客流预测；交通分布模型；交通生成模型 ii ABSTRACT PassengerVolume Forecast by predicting the flow line sections, transfer traffic flow evaluation station entrances, rail line network construction planning programs provide important quantitative indicators as having important implications for scientific decision-making rail transportation projects. The main contents are as follows: (1) domestic and international rail traffic forecasting study describes the current situation and development trend of the research background and significance; (2) describes the traditional four-stage method of basic principles and methods, and to point out the shortcomings of the traditional four-stage method, and proposes an improved method; (3) for the shortcomings of traditional four-stage method has been improved, the establishment of an improved method of rail traffic forecasting model four-cell stage by trip purpose and location; (4) to a rail network for the study, carried out using the improved passenger flow forecast four-stage method. KEYWORDS :four stagemethod;rail transit; passengerflow forecast;traffic distribution model;traffic generation model iii 目 录 摘 要 i ABSTRACT iii 目 录 iv 1 绪论 6 1.