经济学原理与应用 GDP是什么？——国民收入核算 gl07经济学第8单元.ppt

五、潜在GDP与奥肯定律 （一）潜在GDP (The Potential GDP)与实际GDP（actual GDP） 1、潜在GDP：是指一个国家一定时期可供利用的生产资源在正常情况下可以产出的最大产量，也就是实现充分就业时会有的GDP 。 2、实际GDP：是指一国在一定时期内实际所生产的GDP。即由有效需求水平所决定的GDP，它和潜在的GDP相对应。 3、GDP缺口：潜在GDP 和实际GDP之间的差距称为GDP缺口。 在有效需求不足或经济萧条期间，潜在GDP大于实际GDP，二者间的差额就是萧条缺口（通货紧缩缺口）； 若有更多的成年人参加劳动或增加时数，则实际GDP大于潜在GDP，二者间的差额就是通货膨胀缺口。 （二）潜在GDP是不断增长的——导致潜在GDP不断增长的主要因素，是劳动生产率的提高。 （三）奥肯定律 1、奥肯定律是回答潜在GNP 和实际GNP变化与失业率变化之间的关系。 2、概述如下：第一，假定潜在GNP每年增长X%； 第二，如果实际GNP每年增长超过潜在GNP 增长的3%，则失业率下降1%。 3、注意两点（1）这是一种经验验证； （2）为调节经济提供了一种政策依据。 Suggestion (continued from previous slide): Show part A (but not the answer) and ask for someone to volunteer his or her response. Then show the answer to part A. Repeat for parts B, C, and D. (The answers to parts C and D appear on the following slide.) After showing the answer to part A, ask your students whether the answer would be different if Debbie were a government employee. The correct answer is NO. Government employees engage in consumption, just like everyone else. Regarding part C: Jane’s purchase causes investment (for her own business) to increase by $1200. However, the computer is sold out of inventory, so inventory investment falls by $1200. The two transactions cancel each other, leaving aggregate investment and GDP unchanged. Regarding part D: This problem illustrates why expenditure always equals output, even when firms don’t sell everything they produce due to lackluster demand. The point here is that unsold output is counted in inventory investment, even when that “investment” was unintentional. Regarding part C: Jane’s purchase causes investment (for her own business) to increase by $1200. However, the computer is sold out of inventory, so inventory investment falls by $1200. The two transactions cancel each other, leaving aggregate investment and GDP unchanged. Regarding part D: This problem illustrates why expenditure always equals output, even when firms don’t sell everything they produce due to lackluster