计算机专业毕业论文现代公交公司的路线调度和信息化服务平台+外文翻译.docVIP

STYLEREF 标题 1 摘要 PAGE 46 摘要 发展公共交通，利用公共交通集约使用交通资源，提高企业信息流通效率，已经成为解决城市交通问题的重要手段。而要进一步提高公共交通的服务水平，必然要求更有效地运营调度车辆，更准确地提供车辆到站信息，这也就对其核心基础——公共汽车行程时间预测提出了更高的要求。 本文就公共汽车行程时间预测的方法进行了研究，回顾了国内外相关研究的概况，通过对公共汽车运营过程和行程时间影响因素的研究分析，提出以卡尔曼滤波递推公式为基本方法，利用先进公交技术获取的公共汽车自动定位信息和上下乘客人数信息，来预测公共汽车行驶时间、驻站时间，建立了公共汽车行程时间预测的综合模型，特别对单体公共汽车在信号控制交叉口的延误时间进行了分析，并对基本模型作相应的修正。 论文最后以上海市49路公共汽车线路的实测数据，对本文建立的公共汽车行程时间预测模型进行了验证和评价分析，并总结了该模型的特点。 关键词：公共汽车，行程时间，预测 Abstract Developing bus system has been a main means of solving the problem of traffic in cities, which can use the traffic resources concentratedly and increase the efficiency of passenger transportation. However, if we want to improve the level of services of bus system, it is much important dispatching the buses optimally and offering vehicle arrival information precisely. Then the forecasting arrival time becomes more pivotal. In this paper, after reviewing the related research and development inside and outside our country, the bus operating characters and the factors that could affect the bus travel time are analyzed. Based on the dynamic data from AVL and APC which can be equipped on buses, an integrated model is developed to forecast bus travel time (including the running time and dwell time), which use Kalman filter algorithm as the core. Additionally, single bus as main object is studied in detail, in order to estimate the delay time in signal intersection, and the original model referred before is improved. With the actual data from a bus line of Shanghai City, we apply the model and analyze the prediction result of bus travel time. In the end, we summarize the characters of the model set up in this paper. Key Words: bus, travel time, prediction 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u 摘要 I Abstract II 目录 I 第一章 绪论 2 1.1研究背景 2 1.1.1 城市交通问题日益严重 2 1.1.2 交通信息的作用逐渐增强 2 1.1.3 公交服务的迫切需求 2 1.2研究目的和意义 2 1.3 研究内容 2 第二章 研究综述 2 2.1 智能公交系统简介 2 2.2 公交行程时间计算与预测研究综述 2 2.2.1 国外研究概况 2 2.2.2 国内研究概况 2 2.3 研究述评 2 第三章