第三Decision-Analysis-运营管理笔记.pdfVIP

Chapter 3 Decision Analysis To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition, by Render, Stair, and Hanna © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Learning Objectives After completing this chapter, students will be able to: After completing this chapter, students will be able to: 1. List the steps of the decision-making process 2. Describe the types of decision-making environments 3. Make decisions under uncertainty 4. Use probability values to make decisions under risk © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 2 Learning Objectives After completing this chapter, students will be able to: After completing this chapter, students will be able to: 5. Develop accurate and useful decision trees 6. Revise probabilities using Bayesian analysis 7. Use computers to solve basic decision- making problems 8. Understand the importance and use of utility theory in decision making © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 3 Chapter Outline 3.1 Introduction 3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Making 3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments 3.4 Decision Making under Uncertainty 3.5 Decision Making under Risk 3.6 Decision Trees 3.7 How Probability Values Are Estimated by Bayesian Analysis 3.8 Utility Theory © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 3 – 4 Introduction What is involved in making a good decision? Decision theory is an analytic and systematic approach to the study of