2020CFA L3 原版书之 资本市场预期课后习题.pdfVIP

214 Reading 10 ■ Capital Market Expectations, Part 1: Framework and Macro Considerations PRACTICE PROBLEMS The following information relates to Questions 1–8 Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who develops capital market expectations for an investment firm that invests across asset classes and global markets. Wakuluk started her career when the global markets were experiencing significant volatility and poor returns; as a result, she is now careful to base her conclusions on objective evidence and analytical procedures to mitigate any potential biases. Wakuluk’s approach to economic forecasting utilizes a structural model in conjunc- tion with a diffusion index to determine the current phase of a country’s business cycle. This approach has produced successful predictions in the past, thus Wakuluk has high confidence in the predictions. Wakuluk also determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions: Exhibit 1 Prediction for Current Phase of the Business Cycle