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1.Smartpro
The following appeared in a memorandum to a team developing accounting software for SmartPro
Software, Inc.:
“Currently, more professional accountants use SmartPro accounting software than any other brand.
However, in the market for personal accounting software for non-professionals to use in preparing their
income tax returns, many of our competitors are outselling us. In surveys, our professional customers
repeatedly say that they have chosen SmartPro Software because our most sophisticated software
products include more advanced special features than competing brands. Therefore, the most effective
way for us to increase sales of our personal accounting software for home users would clearly be to add
the advanced special features that our professional software products currently offer.”
1. 错误类比:他家的产品收专业人士欢迎是因为符合用户需求,the fact that competitor ’s product
is more popular with homeuser may contribute to the good user experience, integrated function, or
beautiful user interface. 而不一定是因为homeuser 像专业人士一样对 advanced special features
有要求
2. 充分条件:提高销量的办法不止是扩大使用群体,还可能是降价增加竞争力,研发多元化的产品
等。
2.手机稀有金属
cell phone manufacturing requires a large variety of precious and expensive metasl, such like gold,
silver and copper. 在过去的数年中,我们公司已经进行过对此类贵重金属的购买,and we found the
price of these metals sometimes changed dramatically. 而且我们forcast a growth of our cell phone
division and high-volume pruchasing looking strong. 如果我们购买(并且库存?) A large amount fo
these metals, 就可以lock our costs. By doing so, we can lock in our cost savings and guarantee a
high-level profit.
1. 时间外推: 过去几年涨价不代表未来会涨价,如果跌价会给工厂照成损失
2. 无端假设: 就算未来涨价,但提前购买就一定会降低成本? 副作用:贵重金属存储与看护需要额
外的劳动力和仓储资金.这增加了隐形成本.
3. Profit :就算降低成本,但低成本并不是保证利润的唯一条件。
3.Cookville
The following appeared in a presentation by the chief production manager of a machine parts
manufacturing company at a management meeting:
“Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten
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