中国的国际收支失衡双顺差.pptxVIP

全球不平衡、中国经济增长战略调整和汇率政策;1、全球不平衡问题; ;全球不平衡;什么是全球不平衡的可持续性？;美国经常项目逆差的可持续性的判别;美国经常项目逆差和净外债-GDP比;经常项目逆差是否可持续的判别;美国国际收支不平衡的变动历史;1.NIIP status quo: NIIP ratio 25 percent of GDP, current account deficit to 1.5 percent of GDP 2.Current account status quo: the current account deficit at about 5 percent of GDP the NIIP would stabilize at 83 percent of GDP. In other words we have a long way to go. 3.Productivity view: 4 percent of GDP, which would imply a NIIP of 67 percent. 4.Global wealth view: a current account deficit narrowing to about 3 percent of GDP and an NIIP at about 50 percent of GDP. 5. Issing view: the US current account deficit has to shrink to 2 percent of GDP, implying an NIIP of 33 percent. 6. Zero trade deficit: The logic of the primary-deficit/-surplus approach implies that the United States will eventually have to reduce its deficit on goods and services to zero. Net lending to the United States would be limited to the amount sufficient to cover net income payments (currently approximately zero) and net transfer payments (currently approximately half a percent of GDP). With a current account deficit 0.5 percent of GDP, the implied NIIP would shrink to 8 percent of GDP. ;;净外债-GDP比的国际经验;贸易顺差国是否会继续为美国逆差融资？;日本经常顺差会减少吗？ ;But the enterprise saving rate is still very high. Will this rate fell as a result of improvement of the economy?政府贡献为负 ;东亚国家贸易顺差的变动趋势 以泰国为例;石油输出国：将随价格变动而变动;全球不平衡纠正对世界经济的冲击;美元贬值对中国的威胁;中国是资本输出国还是输入国？;国际收支中的一个谜团：美国的“暗物质”;答案：中国的负“暗物质”;2、中国国际收支结构的特点及其不合理性;其他国家的国际收支结构是什么样子的呢？;泰国;马来西亚;印尼;日本;韩国;香港;台湾省;小结：;3、正常的国际收支结构;经常项目顺差与跨代资源配置：以日本为例;中国国际收支结构所存在的四大问题;外资、FDI和先进技术;4、中国双顺差的原因;作为一个发展中国家，为什么中国长期保持了贸易顺差?;正的储蓄-投资缺口;经济的周期性波动;the so-called self-balancing regulation exchange rate policy tax rebate Local governments’ special policies;业已形成的加工贸易的支配地位;加工贸易在中国贸易顺差中的作用;作为一个储蓄过剩的国家，即经常项目顺差国，中国为什么吸引了如此大量的外资？; 金融市场发展的严重滞后 intermediation via the US financial market 资本管制 所有制因素 FDI is a “free lunch”. Who cares, if the payments are due in 5 to 10 years’ time? 财政体系