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Global Macro Strate y
The 2021 Institutional Investor (II) Global Fixed-Income Research poll is open. I you enj oy
our work, please rate us ive stars in the ollowing categories: Global Macro Strategy and
regionally in the ollowing categories: Fixed-Income Strategy, Interest Rate Strategy, and
Currency Foreign Exchange. Thanks or your readership and support!
MORGA N STA NLEY CO. LLC Matthew Hornbach
Matthew .Hornbach@morganstanle .com +1 212 761- 1837
MORGA N STA NLEY CO. INT ERNAT IONA L PLC Filip Denchev
Filip.Denchev@morganstanle .com +44 20 7677-3166
The Hieroglyphics Say Sell onds
We suggest investors stay underweight US duration at current levels or lower, down to
1.11% on 10y US Treasury yields. elow 1.11%, we would expect 10y yields to continue
lower toward 0.99%. The recent move from the March peak at 1.77% has retraced 50%
of the bear market that began in early August 2020. There is nothing magical about a
50% retracement, but other technical factors suggest the rally is over.
Elliott wave analysis suggests 10y yields completed
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