汕头市工业经济的时间序列分析及预测.pdfVIP

汕头市工业经济的时间序列分析及预测 工 业 161203105347 工2020 业 的业汕头市工业经济的时间序列分 析及预测的的 的序列 的 工2020 业 汕头市工业经济的时间序列分析及预测 工业的的经济的分 经济的工业汕头市 的工业业1978-2018 的工业及 2000-2017 工业工业序列分 ARIMA 1,1,0的工业预测 工业间及工业工业间 的 工业的经 济的时工业的的 工业 ARIMA 预测 工2020 业 Time series analysis and prediction of Shantou’s industrial economy Abstract The development of industry has been a hot topic in recent years. As an important part of the economy, it plays a very direct role in stimulating the economic growth. In this paper, the data of industrial output value, gross regional product and man- ufacturing output value from 1978 to 2018 and from 2000 to 2017 are selected to study. First, the logarithmic differential operation of the industrial output value series is carried out, and the ARIMA (1,1,0) model is fitted to predict the industrial output value in the next decade. Then with practice found that the gross value of industrial output and between GDP, gross industrial output value and there may be some relationship between processing and manufacturing output, thus the relations between the two to establish model, adopt the stationarity test, cointegration test and error correction method for fitting, end up with the development of industry is not only to a certain extent, driven by the long-term and short-term economic growth, but also