布鲁盖尔研究所-关于通胀，货币增长能告诉我们什么？（英）.pdf

1 2 0 2 DOES MONEY GROWTH R E B M E V TELL US ANYTHING ABOUT O N 4 0 | INFLATION? 1 2 0 2 / 1 1 E U S FRANCESCO PAPADIA AND LEONARDO CADAMURO S I | R E P A Economists and central bankers no longer consider monetary aggregates P G relevant for inflation forecasts. We explain this neglect by advancing and N I testing the hypothesis that monetary aggregates are only relevant for inflation K R O in unsettled monetary and inflationary conditions. When inflation is basically W stable around the central bank target (1.9 percent), as it has been in most of the last two decades, there is no apparent relationship between monetary aggregates and inflation. This is not surprising: there is not much to be explained about a constant. Leonardo Cadamuro is a PhD Student at Hitotsubashi University Francesco Papadia (francesco.papadia@) is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel Recommended citation: Cadamuro, L. and F. Papadia (2021) ‘Does money growth tell us anything about inflation?’, Working Paper 11/2021, Bruegel 1 The salience of money for the European Central Bank, economists and the general public In the view of economists, money seems to have lost its relevance for forecasting, let alone explaining, inflation. In the European Central Bank’s 2021 monetary policy strategy review (see ECB, 2021), there is indeed a reference to “a weakening of the empirical link between monetary aggregates and inflation”. And the economic and the monetary pillars of the ECB strategy have disappeared, transform