DMD-小组作业一The-aquision-of-DSOFT完整可编辑版.pptVIP

 Polar Team 2: Jamie Christine Amy Cherie Kit Daniela The acquisition  of DSOFT Agenda Case Introduction Decision Tree Decision Sensitive Analysis Summary 10% DSoft 50% Polar 5% Others 35% ILEN Market Share Case Introduction $300 Million (P=0.5) $150 Million (P=0.3) $0 Million (P=0.2) EMV of New products $195 million Net Worth of DSoft $300 million Value of DSoft $495 million P=Possibility New Products Make a “high” offer of $400 Millions Make a “low” offer of $320 Millions Make no offers at all Options of Polar’s initial offer DSoft will not accept a purchase offer lower than $300 Millions Possibility=0.3 Possibility=0.4 Possibility=0.3 Withdraw Identical Withdraw Identical Offer 10% higher Click to add Title Click to add Title Offer 10% higher Identical Withdraw Polar’s Offer Offer 10% higher Offer 20% higher Offer 30% higher ILEN’s offer vs Polar’s final offer ILEN Counter Offer Offer 10% higher Polar’s Final offer DSoft’s choice 1. Polar’s offer identical ILEN offer 2. Polar’s offer 10%+ of ILEN’s offer Win Fail Win Fail How Should Polar Make the Decision? Offer $ 400M B Offer $ 320M C Make No Offer Initial Offer A Decision Tree Offer $ 400M B Offer $ 320M C Make No Offer Initial Offer A Decision Tree EMV $9M DECISION TREE Offer $ 320M C Initial Offer A Decision EMV $47M 10% higher Offer Identical Offer ILEN counter-offer 10% higher If ILEN counter-offer more than 10% higher Final Decision Make an initial offer of US$320M with an EMV of $47M If ILEN counter offer 10% higher than Polar’s initial offer, then Polar make an counter-offer more than 10% higher. If ILEN counter offer 20% or 30% higher than Polar’s initial offer, then Polar make an counter-offer more than 10% higher. How will the factors affect our EMV if varies +/- 50%? A B C D A. Net Worth of New Product B. Identical Offer Accept Probability C. 10% Higher Offer Accept Probability Sensitivit