TED中英官方演讲稿-GavinSchmidt_2014气候变迁的突现形态.docxVIP

1.We live in a very complex environment: complexity and dynamism and patterns of evidence from satellite photographs, from videos. 我們活在非常複雜的環境裡： 複雜性及動力系統論 及各式氣候變化形態的證據 從衛星照相、從影片得之2.You can even see it outside your window. 你甚至能從你的窗戶外面看到3.Its endlessly complex, but somehow familiar, but the patterns kind of repeat, but they never repeat exactly. 無止盡的複雜又具某種程度的熟悉 但形態的確有一定程度的重複 但從來沒有一模一樣過4.Its a huge challenge to understand. 要了解它是很大的挑戰5.The patterns that you see are there at all of the different scales, but you cant chop it into one little bit and say, Oh, well let me just make a smaller climate. 你所看到的形態 都以不同的尺度存在著 但你不能切下一小塊然後說 「喔，那我做個小一點的氣候。」6.I cant use the normal products of reductionism to get a smaller and smaller thing that I can study in a laboratory and say, Oh, now thats something I now understand. 我不能以一般的化約論產品 得到愈來愈小的東西 使我能在實驗室裡研究且說 「喔，這是我能理解的了。」7.Its the whole or its nothing. 這是全有或全無8.The different scales that give you these kinds of patterns range over an enormous range of magnitude, roughly 14 orders of magnitude, 這些氣候形態 以不同的尺度呈現 其範圍幅度非常大 大約是 14 數量級的差距9.from the small microscopic particles that seed clouds to the size of the planet itself, from 10 to the minus six to 10 to the eight, 從最小的顯微粒子 以造雨 到這個星球本身的大小 從 10 的負六次方到 10 的八次方10.14 orders of spatial magnitude. 空間數量級的差距為 1411.In time, from milliseconds to millennia, again around 14 orders of magnitude. 在時間上，從毫秒到千年 同樣也是 14 數量級12.What does that mean? 這意味著什麼？13.Okay, well if you think about how you can calculate these things, you can take what you can see, okay, Im going to chop it up into lots of little boxes, 好，如果你想一想 你要如何計算這些東西 你會把你見到的事物 好，我要把它切碎 成這些小方塊14.and thats the result of physics, right? 這就是物理學的結果，對吧？15.And if I think about a weather model, that spans about five orders of magnitude, from the planet to a few kilometers, and the time scale 如果我想到一個氣象模型 尺度橫跨五數量級 也就是從地球的大小到幾公里 時間尺度則是16.from a few minutes to 10 days, maybe a month. 從幾分鐘到十天或者一個月1