CFA三级培训项目：Behavioral Finance 打印版.docVIP

P(l叩—） * P(AIB)= — P(A) where =cond代ional probability of event A given B. It is the updated =prior (unconditional) probability of information B. P B = prior probability of event A, without new information B. This is the ( ) 呏负 ate of base probab小ty of event A. r 13-110 亏业．创新· 谗值 Making Decisions in Perfect Word In a perfect world, when people make decisions under uncertainty, they are assumed to do the f ollowiing: ? Adhere to the axioms of utility theory; ? Behave in such a way as to assign a probability measure to possible events; ? Incorporate new information by cond巾oning probability measures according to Bayesformula; ? Choose an action that maximizes the utility function subject to budget constraints (consistently across different decision problems) with respect to this conditional probability meiasure. Homo economics or rational economic man (REM): Principles of perfect rationality, perfect self-int1!rest, and perfect information govern REMs economic decisions. 14-110 亏业．创新· 谗值 Risk Averse Expected utility theory generally assumes that individuals are risk-averse. This means that an individual may re1fuse a fair wager.(a wager with an expected value of zero), and also imp,lies that his utility functions are concave and showdiminishing marginal utility of wealth; Given two choices—investing to receive an expected value with certainty or investing in an uncertain alternative that generates the same expected value—someone who prefers to inv1est to receive an expected value with certainty rather than invest in the iun cert ain alternative that generates the same expected value is called risk-averse; who prefers to invest in thE! uncertain alternative is called risk- seeking; In trad巾onal finance, individuals are assumed to be risk-averse. 15-110 亏业．创新· 谗值 ? ? ? Detection of dominance: O utconnes that are strictly dominated are scanned and rejected without furtlher evaluation. 28-110 亏业．创新· 谗值 Prospect Phase U = w ( p 1) v ( x 1) … p1, p ... their respective pro