IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L01Macro.pptxVIP

L-1 Macroeconomic Stability, Macroeconomic Policies, and Macro-Prudential PoliciesJoint China-IMF Training ProgramCourse on Macroeconomic Management and Financial Sector IssuesPresenterClinton Shiells第一页，编辑于星期六：点 十八分。OutlineThis training material is the property of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is intended for use in IMF Institute courses. Any reuse requires the permission of the IMF Institute.〞第二页，编辑于星期六：点 十八分。What is macroeconomic stability and why do we care?Policies for macroeconomic stabilityFiscal policyMonetary policyExchange rate policyThe financial sector and macroeconomic stabilityMacro-prudential policiesWhat is Macroeconomic Stability and Why Do We Care?第三页，编辑于星期六：点 十八分。What do we mean by “macroeconomic stability〞?第四页，编辑于星期六：点 十八分。Macroeconomic stability exists when key economic relationships are in balance:Internal balance occurs when real output is at or close to its capacity level and the inflation rate is low and non-acceleratingExternal balance occurs when the current account position can be sustained by capital flows on terms compatible with the growth prospects of the economy without resort to restrictions on trade and paymentsWhy do we care about macro stability?第五页，编辑于星期六：点 十八分。“In practice, the concept of a stable macroeconomic framework is used to mean a macroeconomic policy environment that is conducive to growth.〞 Fischer (1993)“Conceptually, macroeconomic instability refers to phenomena that decrease the predictability of the domestic macroeconomic environment, and it is of concern because unpredictability hampers resource-allocation decisions, investment and growth.〞 Montiel and Servén (2005)Volatility and growthThere appears to be a negative relationship between the average and the standard deviation of per capita GDP growth, both calculated over long periods.92 countries, 1962-85Growth = 0.030 – 0.154 Vol (-2.3)R2Source: Ramey Ramey (AER, 1995)第六页，编辑于星期六：点 十八分。Volatility and growth“Normal〞 volatility vs. “crisis〞 volati