鲁迪格·多恩布什-宏观经济学（第十三版）IPPTChap019.pptVIP

Financial Markets and Asset PricesChapter #19Copyright ? 2014 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. IntroductionFinancial markets link the macroeconomy and government policy directly to the lives of everyday peopleChanges in interest rates affect our ability to finance a home, carMovements in the stock market determine the value of pensionsIn this chapter we examine the behavior of three financial markets: Bond marketStock marketForeign exchange market19-2 Interest Rates: Long and Short TermInterest rates summarize the promised repayment terms on bonds, loans → not just one interest rate Interest rates differ according to:Credit worthiness of issuerTax treatmentsRisk TermOther factorsThe factor of greatest focus here is the term or the length of time the interest rate coversThe relation between interest rates of different maturities is called the term structure of interest19-3 Interest Rates: Long and Short TermInterest rates for U.S. Treasury securities from 3 months to 30 yearsInterest rates of different maturities mostly go up and down togetherThe gap between long term rates and short-term rates variesLong-term rates are usually higher than short-term rates19-4 Interest Rates: Long and Short TermConsider the relation between the 1-year and 3-year rates (today is January 1, 2020)You have the option of:Making a three year investment today and earning 3i2020 each year ORInvesting for one year, reinvesting for another year at the prevailing rate at the beginning of 2021, and doing the same at the beginning of 202219-5 If all of the rates in Figure 19-2 were known in advance, the total returns would be equal for both optionsIf the total returns were not equal, everyone would invest in the alternative with the greatest return→ illustrates the idea of ARBITRAGE: The long-term interest rate equals the average of current and future short-term interest rates.Interest Rates: L