商务与经济统计(原书第14版)Ch04.pptxVIP

Statistics for Business and Economics (14e)Metric VersionAnderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, Ohlmann? 2020 Cengage Learning? 2020 Cengage. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.1 Chapter 4 - Introduction to Probability 4.1 - Random Experiments, Counting Rules, and Assigning Probabilities 4.2 - Events and Their Probabilities4.3 - Some Basic Relationships of Probability 4.4 - Conditional Probability 4.5 - Bayes’ Theorem2 UncertaintiesManagers often base their decisions on an analysis of uncertainties such as the following:What are the chances that the sales will decrease if we increase prices?What is the likelihood a new assembly method will increase productivity?What are the odds that a new investment will be profitable? 3 ProbabilityProbability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.Probability values are always assigned on a scale from 0 to 1. A probability near zero indicates an event is quite unlikely to occur. A probability near one indicates an event is almost certain to occur. 4 Statistical ExperimentsIn statistics, the notion of an experiment differs somewhat from that of an experiment in the physical sciences.In statistical experiments, probability determines outcomes. Even though the experiment is repeated exactly the same way, an entirely different outcome may occur. For this reason, statistical experiments are sometimes called random experiments. 5 Random Experiment and Its Sample Space (1 of 2)A Random experiment is a process that generates well-defined experimental outcomes. The sample space for an experiment is the set of all experimental outcomes.An experimental outcome is also called a sample point. ExperimentExperimental Outcomes Toss a coinHead,